Some­time in the year 2010, the one bil­lionth African will be born. We won’t know where or when due to spotty cen­sus fig­ures but the con­ti­nent will make the mark, and the pop­u­la­tion will con­tinue to increase.

A story in the Guardian today looks atwhat is come for that one bil­lionth child. The story looks at the rapid pop­u­la­tion growth for the con­ti­nent and the chal­lenges it entails. Writer David Smith gives us the analysis.

By 2050, the pop­u­la­tion is pro­jected to almost dou­ble, to 1.9 bil­lion. Pes­simists pre­dict a human tide that will put an unbear­able bur­den on food, jobs, schools, hous­ing and health­care. Yet opti­mists sense an oppor­tu­nity to fol­low billion-strong China and India in pur­su­ing eco­nomic growth.

“It’s not a prob­lem,” said Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born British entre­pre­neur. “Africa is under­pop­u­lated. We have 20% of the world’s land­mass and 13% of its pop­u­la­tion. We have a bulge of young peo­ple and that brings to the mar­ket­place a huge work­force, whereas Europe’s pop­u­la­tion is age­ing. We need to focus on edu­ca­tion and training.”

Africans born today are likely to live not in a vil­lage but in a “mega-city” since the continent’s rate of urban­i­sa­tion is the fastest the world has yet seen. Deaths from smok­ing or car crashes will be a fac­tor as much as the more famil­iar health issues of mal­nu­tri­tion, malaria and Aids. These cit­i­zens will also be vul­ner­a­ble to droughts, floods and deser­ti­fi­ca­tion caused by cli­mate change.

But the chil­dren of 2009 will also have oppor­tu­ni­ties undreamed of by their ances­tors. They will almost cer­tainly own a mobile phone, or per­haps two, and even­tu­ally get reg­u­lar inter­net access. They may be bet­ter off – Africa has the fastest eco­nomic growth this year out­side China and India. They will have ten­ta­tive grounds to hope for bet­ter gov­er­nance and fewer wars.

If, that is, they can stay alive beyond infancy. Rich­mond Tiemoko, pop­u­la­tion and devel­op­ment adviser for the Africa regional office of the UN pop­u­la­tion fund (UNFPA), said: “The first chal­lenge for the baby … is to sur­vive because, although it’s declin­ing, child mor­tal­ity is still high. For the young peo­ple com­ing, the chal­lenge is to get a good edu­ca­tion so they are fully incor­po­rated in mod­ern soci­ety. That depends on gov­ern­ment invest­ment in them and their mother, and also in health ser­vices to ensure they sur­vive and are healthy.”

Africa’s pop­u­la­tion has dou­bled in the past 27 years, with Nigeria’s and Uganda’s num­bers climb­ing the fastest. Whereas in 1950 there were two Euro­peans for every African, by 2050 there will be two Africans for every Euro­pean. Even China’s pro­jected pop­u­la­tion of 1.4 bil­lion in 40 years will be shrink­ing, while India will be adding only 3 mil­lion a year to its 1.6 bil­lion peo­ple. Women in Africa still bear more chil­dren than in other regions. The US-based Pop­u­la­tion Ref­er­ence Bureau reported this year that, while the aver­age woman world­wide has 2.6 chil­dren, in sub-Saharan Africa the fig­ure is 5.3. The world’s high­est fer­til­ity rate is in Niger, where women have on aver­age 7.4 children.

Africa’s pop­u­la­tion con­tin­ues to rise because of low life expectancy, Tiemoko explained. “Tra­di­tion­ally in all soci­eties, when mor­tal­ity is high, fer­til­ity tends to be high. When peo­ple are dying the pop­u­la­tion tries to off­set that by hav­ing more chil­dren to make sure the sur­vival rate is accept­able. Mor­tal­ity has largely declined on the con­ti­nent but is still high.”

Whereas glob­ally 62% of mar­ried women of child­bear­ing age use con­tra­cep­tion, in Africa the fig­ure is 28%.

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